Trump administration backs Kalshi, Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets
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The Polymarket prediction market website is displayed on a computer screen, Jan. 11, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Wyatte Grantham-Philips, File) NEW YORK (AP) — The Trump administration is throwing its support behind the prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in a critical legal battle between the growing prediction market industry and states that wish to ban these platforms.
AI Summary
Main Idea: The Trump administration is backing Kalshi and Polymarket in a fight over whether states can stop prediction markets that let people bet on future events.
Key Points:
- The CFTC, led by Michael Selig, says federal rules should control these markets, not state gambling bans.
- Kalshi and Polymarket let users trade contracts tied to outcomes like sports, weather, and politics, and much of their business is linked to sports.
- States like Nevada say the companies are running illegal gambling operations and have tried to shut them down.
- The dispute could shape the future of sports betting rules and limit how much states can regulate gambling.
Impact on the People
Negative Impact
If Kalshi and Polymarket win, more sports-style betting could spread in states that tried to ban it, raising gambling risks for households and making state rules harder to enforce.
Positive Impact
Federal support could give consumers in all 50 states access to prediction markets and new ways to hedge against events like weather or price shifts.
How did each entity affect people?
Rate how each entity in this article affected the American people.
- Primary:Kalshicompany
- Primary:Michael Seligperson
Candidate Entities12 candidates · 5 weighted vote min · 70% decision
- KalshicompanyPrimaryEvaluated
One of the two prediction market operators at the center of the legal and regulatory fight.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Michael SeligpersonPrimaryEvaluated
Recently appointed chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission whose support for the companies is a central development.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Commodity Futures Trading Commissiongovernment agency or bodyPrimaryAI selected
Federal regulator taking the concrete action of weighing in on the court fight and shaping oversight of prediction.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - PolymarketcompanyPrimaryAI selected
One of the two prediction market operators at the center of the legal and regulatory fight.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Donald Trump Jr.personMajorAI selected
The president’s son is directly relevant because of his investment in Polymarket and advisory role with Kalshi.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Nevada Gaming Control Boardgovernment agency or bodyMajorAI selected
State regulator that sued and took enforcement action against the companies, triggering the legal conflict.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - DraftKingscompanyContextCandidate
Named member of the CFTC advisory panel and a major sports betting operator tied to the article’s regulatory.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold
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