Steve Kornacki: The voter trends shaping the first big battleground state race of 2025
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In three weeks, we’ll get our first battleground state readout of the post-2024 political landscape. Limited time: Save 25% on NBC News subscription Get exclusive reporting, live Q&As and ad-free reading. Wisconsin’s election on April 1 for a seat on the state Supreme Court is nonpartisan in name only. Prominent Republican donors and activists are squarely behind conservative Brad Schimel, while Democrats are with liberal Susan Crawford.
AI Summary
Main Idea: Wisconsin’s first big 2025 battleground race will test whether Donald Trump’s narrow gains in the state last year were a lasting shift or just tied to Trump himself.
Key Points:
- The April 1 Wisconsin Supreme Court race is nonpartisan in name only, with Republicans backing Brad Schimel and Democrats backing Susan Crawford.
- Trump won Wisconsin by just 0.9 points in 2024, and the state saw only a small swing from 2020, making it the tightest battleground by margin.
- Trump made his biggest gains in the Driftless Area, while Democrats improved in some suburban WOW counties outside Milwaukee.
- Democrats also lost ground with Hispanic voters in Milwaukee County, but the drop was much smaller in the U.S. Senate race, suggesting the shift may have been Trump-specific.
Impact on the People
Negative Impact
More polarized races can leave voters feeling less represented and can deepen political divisions in communities.
Positive Impact
The Wisconsin result could give voters and parties a clearer read on whether Trump-style support is fading or lasting.
How did each entity affect people?
Rate how each entity in this article affected the American people.
- Primary:President Donald Trumpperson
- Primary:Wisconsinstate
Candidate Entities8 candidates · 5 weighted vote min · 70% decision
- President Donald TrumppersonPrimaryEvaluated
Central political figure whose 2024 Wisconsin performance and voter shifts are the main benchmark for the article’s analysis.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - WisconsinstatePrimaryEvaluated
The article is centered on Wisconsin as the premier battleground state being analyzed through its voter trends and.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Brad SchimelpersonMajorAI selected
Republican-backed candidate in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and a main focus of the article.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Joe BidenpersonMajorAI selected
Former president whose 2020 Wisconsin result is central to the article’s trend analysis.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Kamala HarrispersonMajorAI selected
Named presidential candidate used as the key comparison point for Wisconsin’s 2024 vote shift.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Susan CrawfordpersonMajorAI selected
Democratic-backed candidate in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and a main focus of the article.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Ozaukee CountycountyContextCandidate
Key suburban county highlighted for Democratic gains and GOP decline.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Waukesha CountycountyContextCandidate
Key suburban county within the WOW counties discussed as part of the vote trend analysis.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold
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