Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows
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Trade tensions have torn into the markets. With stocks sliding into correction territory in the last week, a question emerges: Is a recession next? Limited time: Save 25% on NBC News subscription Get exclusive reporting, live Q&As and ad-free reading. Traders on prediction markets — where people wager on such events as the likelihood of a recession — are increasingly betting on an economic downturn.
AI Summary
Main Idea: NBC News says recession worries are rising as trade tensions and weaker confidence add pressure, but the main data still gives mixed signals and does not yet show a clear downturn.
Key Points:
- Prediction markets now see a higher chance of a recession in 2025, and experts say trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and low consumer confidence are adding risk.
- The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell 10.5% this month, which can be a warning sign because confidence affects spending.
- Consumer spending and job openings have stayed fairly steady, which argues against a clear recession signal for now.
- The National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared a recession, and the Federal Reserve’s favorite yield-curve gauge is back in positive territory after a long inversion.
Impact on the People
Negative Impact
Recession fears could mean slower hiring, weaker spending, and more stress for households and small businesses if confidence keeps falling.
Positive Impact
The Federal Reserve, NBER, and University of Michigan data can help voters and markets spot risks early and plan ahead.
How did each entity affect people?
Rate how each entity in this article affected the American people.
- Major:Federal Reservegovernment agency or body
- Major:National Bureau of Economic Researchnonprofit / NGO
- Major:University of Michiganeducational / research institution
Candidate Entities10 candidates · 5 weighted vote min · 70% decision
- Federal Reservegovernment agency or bodyMajorEvaluated
Its yield-curve recession gauge is highlighted as a major indicator economists watch.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - National Bureau of Economic Researchnonprofit / NGOMajorEvaluated
The nonprofit that officially determines when U.S. recessions begin and end.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - University of Michiganeducational / research institutionMajorEvaluated
Its Survey of Consumers is cited as a key gauge of consumer sentiment and recession risk.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Census Bureaugovernment agency or bodyContextCandidate
Cited as the source of retail sales data used to assess recession risk.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Dennis HoffmanpersonContextCandidate
Economist quoted on consumer and business confidence erosion.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Harvard Kennedy Schooleducational / research institutionContextCandidate
Jeffrey Frankel is identified with this institution when discussing recession indicators.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Jeffrey FrankelpersonContextCandidate
Harvard economist quoted on retail sales as an early recession indicator.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold
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