Economists expect faster growth, but weaker job gains, through 2025
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The U.S. economy could be on the upswing even if tariffs and stubborn inflation continue to weigh on growth, according to a new analysis. The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said Monday it expects the nation's gross domestic product — a measure of the total value of goods and services — to rise 1.8% in 2025, up from the group's previous estimate in June of 1.3%. The survey, which was conducted from Sept.
AI Summary
Main Idea: Economists expect the Federal Reserve to help support a stronger U.S. economy in 2025, even as job growth stays weak and inflation remains above target.
Key Points:
- NABE raised its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.8% and sees 1.7% growth in 2026.
- The group expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again by the end of 2025 and more in 2026.
- Job growth has slowed, layoffs have risen, and economists now expect only about 60,000 payroll gains a month for the rest of the year.
- Inflation is still a problem, with NABE projecting 3% annualized PCE inflation for the rest of 2025 and a rise in the jobless rate to 4.5% in 2026.
Impact on the People
Negative Impact
Job growth is slowing, layoffs are rising, and unemployment may edge up, which could mean more strain for workers and households.
Positive Impact
The Federal Reserve may cut rates, which could lower borrowing costs for mortgages, cars, and small businesses.
How did each entity affect people?
Rate how each entity in this article affected the American people.
- Major:Federal Reservegovernment agency or body
Candidate Entities3 candidates · 5 weighted vote min · 70% decision
- Federal Reservegovernment agency or bodyMajorEvaluated
Central policy body whose expected rate moves are part of the article’s main economic outlook.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Gregory DacopersonMajorAI selected
Named economist and NABE vice president quoted on the outlook and forecast changes.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - EY-ParthenoncompanyContextCandidate
Named employer of Gregory Daco and part of his identified public role in the story.
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