National Retail Federation predicts first $1 trillion holiday shopping season
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A shopper shops at a retail store in Arlington Heights, Ill., Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File) NEW YORK (AP) — American shoppers are expected to spend more during this holiday shopping season than last year despite economic uncertainty and rising prices. The 2025 forecast from the National Retail Federation on Thursday estimates that shoppers will collectively spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% compared with last year.
AI Summary
Main Idea: The National Retail Federation says U.S. holiday spending should top $1 trillion this year, but growth is slowing as shoppers face higher prices and economic uncertainty.
Key Points:
- The NRF forecasts that Americans will spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, up 3.7% to 4.2% from last year.
- The group says shoppers are still spending, but they are becoming more selective and are looking for discounts.
- The forecast comes during the longest U.S. government shutdown on record, which has delayed key jobs and retail data and made forecasting harder.
- Bank of America says lower-income households are falling behind higher earners, and it estimates consumers are paying a large share of tariff costs, which may keep prices high.
Impact on the People
Negative Impact
Higher holiday prices, tariffs, and a long shutdown may squeeze lower-income households and cut seasonal hiring.
Positive Impact
Strong holiday spending could support retail jobs and store sales, helping local businesses and the wider economy.
How did each entity affect people?
Rate how each entity in this article affected the American people.
- Primary:National Retail Federationunion / trade association
- Major:Bank of Americacompany
Candidate Entities7 candidates · 5 weighted vote min · 70% decision
- National Retail Federationunion / trade associationPrimaryEvaluated
Central trade association issuing the holiday spending forecast that the article is about.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Bank of AmericacompanyMajorEvaluated
Named financial firm cited for a separate consumer-spending and tariff-cost estimate that is materially discussed.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - CEO Matthew ShaypersonMajorAI selected
National Retail Federation president and CEO, quoted explaining and framing the forecast.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - AdobecompanyContextCandidate
Cited for an online sales forecast that supports the story’s comparisons.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Deloitte Services LPcompanyContextCandidate
Cited as another holiday retail forecast source, but not a central actor.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Mastercard SpendingPulsecompanyContextCandidate
Cited as a forecasting source for holiday sales growth, but only as supporting data.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold - Trump administrationpolitical organizationContextCandidate
Mentioned as the source of new tariffs affecting prices and retail costs, but not the article’s main focus.
Include 0 (0%)Ignore 0 (0%)5 to threshold
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